Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -300 UTSA +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +29 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -9.1 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -7.0 (+22.0) | 153.0 (+32.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -5.9 (+23.1) | 161.1 (+23.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -6.4 (+22.6) | 158.5 (+26.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -6.1 (+22.9) | 152.1 (+32.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | TLSA 100 – 74 UTSA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TLSA 80 – 76 UTSA |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TLSA 82 – 77 UTSA |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UTSA 89 – 73 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#178) | -5.8 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#230) | -1.29 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#225) | -1.44 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#280) | 0.423 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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