Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -138 TLSA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +16 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -1.2 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -0.8 (+15.2) | 154.9 (+7.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UTSA -1.7 (+14.3) | 156.7 (+5.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TLSA -0.9 (+16.9) | 153.3 (+8.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -0.9 (+16.9) | 153.2 (+8.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | TLSA 100 – 74 UTSA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TLSA 80 – 76 UTSA |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TLSA 82 – 77 UTSA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | TLSA 107 – 78 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#273) | -1.5 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#294) | -0.21 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#302) | -0.33 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#307) | 0.471 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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