Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | RICH +105 FOR -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -0.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -0.0 (+4.0) | 148.2 (-12.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -1.6 (+2.4) | 145.8 (-9.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -0.1 (+3.9) | 146.5 (-10.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -0.5 (+4.5) | 147.2 (-11.2) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | RICH 83 – 75 FOR |
| Feb 1, 2024 | RICH 83 – 69 FOR |
| Feb 5, 2023 | RICH 68 – 58 FOR |
| Jan 19, 2022 | RICH 83 – 70 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#256) | -3.3 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#267) | -0.37 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#253) | -0.45 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#233) | 0.486 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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