Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -140 SLU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -1.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -2.1 (+6.9) | 138.5 (+8.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -3.2 (+5.8) | 140.4 (+6.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -1.8 (+7.2) | 139.3 (+7.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -1.3 (+7.7) | 139.1 (+7.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | SLU 79 – 65 LUC |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SLU 86 – 59 LUC |
| Mar 14, 2025 | LUC 72 – 64 SLU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SLU 98 – 67 LUC |
| Jan 31, 2024 | LUC 77 – 62 SLU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#145) | 2.5 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#129) | 0.45 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#121) | 0.69 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#132) | 0.532 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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