Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
Atlantic 10 Conference · Chaifetz Arena · March 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SLU -21.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money SLU -6500 / LUC +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total SLU win
Actual SLU +14 144 Won
Massey SLU -29.3 (-15.3) — —
Massey Totals — 156.0 (-12.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SLU -25.8 (-11.8) 149.6 (-5.6) 91% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SLU -19.4 (-5.4) 149.6 (-5.6) 90% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SLU -22.0 (-8.0) 149.6 (-5.6) 91% ✓
Baseline ML SLU -25.3 (-11.3) 150.7 (-6.7) 91% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 SLU 86 – 59 LUC
Mar 14, 2025 LUC 72 – 64 SLU
Mar 1, 2025 SLU 98 – 67 LUC
Feb 15, 2025 LUC 78 – 69 SLU
Jan 31, 2024 LUC 77 – 62 SLU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SLU LUC
Overall 29-6 9-24
Conference 15-3 4-14
Home 19-0 6-10
Away 7-3 1-10
Neutral 3-3 2-4
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 86.4 66.8
Avg Pts Against 71.6 75.8
Massey 17.8 (#22) -8.4 (#297)
Bradley-Terry 2.64 (#28) -1.43 (#296)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.30 (#32) -1.97 (#306)
RPI 0.616 (#23) 0.429 (#315)
Shooting & Four Factors SLU LUC
FG% 51.1% 41.9%
3PT% 41.4% 30.9%
REB / G 40.4 34.1
OREB / G 10.2 10.6
AST / TO 1.48 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 60.4% 49.2%
TOV% 17.3% 19.7%
ORB% 32.0% 30.8%
FT Rate 25.7% 23.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.6% 52.4%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 13.0%
DRB% 73.7% 70.1%
Opp FT Rate 27.9% 26.6%

Game Analysis

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