And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Atlantic 10 Conference · Chaifetz Arena · March 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SLU -21.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money SLU -6500 / LUC +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total SLU win
Actual SLU +14 144 Won
Massey SLU -29.3 (-15.3)
Massey Totals 156.0 (-12.0)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML SLU -19.4 (-5.4) 149.6 (-5.6) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML SLU -22.0 (-8.0) 149.6 (-5.6) 91%
Baseline ML SLU -25.3 (-11.3) 150.7 (-6.7) 91%
Baseline Plus ML SLU -25.8 (-11.8) 149.6 (-5.6) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 SLU 8659 LUC
Mar 14, 2025 LUC 7264 SLU
Mar 1, 2025 SLU 9867 LUC
Feb 15, 2025 LUC 7869 SLU
Jan 31, 2024 LUC 7762 SLU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SLU LUC
Overall 29-6 9-24
Conference 15-3 4-14
Home 19-0 6-10
Away 7-3 1-10
Neutral 3-3 2-4
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 86.4 66.8
Avg Pts Against 71.6 75.8
Massey 17.8 (#22) -8.4 (#297)
Bradley-Terry 2.64 (#28) -1.43 (#296)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.30 (#32) -1.97 (#306)
RPI 0.616 (#23) 0.429 (#315)
Shooting & Four Factors SLU LUC
FG% 51.1% 41.9%
3PT% 41.4% 30.9%
REB / G 40.4 34.1
OREB / G 10.2 10.6
AST / TO 1.48 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 60.4% 49.2%
TOV% 17.3% 19.7%
ORB% 32.0% 30.8%
FT Rate 25.7% 23.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.6% 52.4%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 13.0%
DRB% 73.7% 70.1%
Opp FT Rate 27.9% 26.6%

Game Analysis

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