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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–33 on winners spread MAE 8.7 117 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Xavier @ Seton Hall	+0.7	141.5	53%	82–60	✗
Siena @ Rider	+2.0	133.2	59%	66–69	✓
Fairfield @ Niagara	+1.4	128.3	52%	68–76	✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's	-10.6	137.1	16%	80–68	✓
Marist @ Manhattan	+1.6	130.8	54%	81–58	✗
Saint Peter's @ Canisius	+2.9	132.2	59%	53–66	✓
Richmond @ VCU	+9.8	133.9	84%	58–73	✓
Marshall @ Old Dominion	-1.5	150.0	52%	67–71	✗
App State @ Georgia Southern	-0.0	133.3	53%	64–73	✗
Bellarmine @ North Florida	+2.5	143.7	61%	67–79	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville	-0.4	127.9	51%	56–52	✓
Queens University @ Liberty	+12.0	146.0	88%	53–73	✓
Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast	+9.8	137.8	85%	71–89	✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson	+2.7	148.9	66%	98–91	✗
Jacksonville State @ North Alabama	+1.1	142.8	57%	92–83	✗
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe	+1.6	130.2	48%	64–61	✗
Coastal Carolina @ Troy	+9.0	146.4	84%	74–95	✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State	-1.0	137.5	45%	79–69	✓
Georgia State @ James Madison	+10.4	143.5	84%	69–90	✓
Kennesaw State @ Central Arkansas	-8.7	153.4	18%	72–56	✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State	+6.2	139.3	70%	71–84	✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon	+4.8	139.6	68%	65–54	✗
South Alabama @ Louisiana	+3.6	143.1	65%	64–74	✓
Air Force @ UNLV	+9.3	138.3	82%	53–54	✓
Nevada @ Fresno State	-4.0	127.1	35%	60–56	✓
UConn @ St. John's	-6.9	149.4	21%	95–86	✓
Creighton @ Villanova	-1.2	136.0	51%	67–79	✗
Oklahoma @ Iowa State	+7.3	125.6	74%	61–50	✗
TCU @ Texas Tech	+1.4	144.0	59%	83–82	✗
Clemson @ NC State	+5.5	148.4	76%	96–71	✗
Michigan State @ Iowa	+3.1	144.9	71%	106–112	✓
Stony Brook @ Charleston	+18.5	144.6	90%	52–92	✓
Lehigh @ Boston University	+2.6	135.8	70%	56–59	✓
Missouri @ Georgia	-3.5	152.6	34%	85–63	✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH)	-6.3	148.1	26%	68–85	✗
Merrimack @ Long Island University	-8.0	133.3	17%	80–59	✓
Sacred Heart @ Central Connecticut	+1.3	144.4	52%	69–67	✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+6.1	141.3	70%	69–86	✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy	+2.6	159.0	66%	82–71	✗
Arkansas @ Alabama	+10.1	157.1	83%	83–86	✓
Arizona State @ Arizona	+11.3	155.8	85%	89–88	✗
Texas @ Baylor	+3.9	151.6	69%	72–81	✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State	+1.5	141.0	64%	73–68	✗
Lafayette @ Bucknell	-0.4	131.3	54%	65–75	✗
Army @ Holy Cross	-4.3	143.2	36%	80–65	✓
Louisville @ Georgia Tech	+6.7	140.2	77%	67–83	✓
Maine @ Binghamton	+2.1	134.8	63%	71–67	✗
Princeton @ Harvard	-0.2	139.7	48%	58–56	✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania	+9.1	146.1	83%	79–89	✓
Brown @ Columbia	-8.0	144.2	21%	84–73	✓
UTEP @ Florida Atlantic	+13.2	141.9	88%	49–75	✓
High Point @ Winthrop	+5.6	153.1	77%	78–84	✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate	-2.7	132.0	45%	69–75	✗
Campbell @ Radford	+3.8	132.3	67%	65–67	✓
Furman @ Samford	+0.6	155.0	54%	93–79	✗
The Citadel @ Mercer	+6.4	136.8	73%	50–72	✓
Buffalo @ Toledo	+10.3	159.7	82%	71–101	✓
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan	-1.4	138.5	46%	84–80	✓
Western Illinois @ North Dakota State	+5.6	144.7	73%	69–71	✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota	-1.5	147.2	55%	74–82	✗
Hampton @ North Carolina A&T	+5.2	148.0	74%	72–73	✓
Monmouth @ William & Mary	+3.8	137.1	65%	62–74	✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra	+14.9	138.0	88%	52–84	✓
Rhode Island @ Fordham	+7.3	138.2	81%	71–74	✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington	+0.2	136.9	55%	69–71	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State	-3.4	147.8	34%	69–65	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland	-2.2	139.0	41%	78–69	✓
Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado	+4.1	151.3	71%	85–82	✗
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State	+0.8	126.8	54%	62–69	✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska	+8.7	137.3	84%	67–78	✓
Ball State @ Eastern Michigan	-6.2	150.9	30%	68–75	✗
UT Martin @ Morehead State	+4.9	141.4	75%	58–72	✓
West Virginia @ Kansas	+7.5	149.1	81%	74–76	✓
Florida State @ Miami	+14.1	158.4	87%	85–84	✗
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman	-6.3	142.7	28%	53–60	✗
Delaware State @ Morgan State	+8.2	140.3	82%	78–83	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State	-5.0	146.4	27%	78–57	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee	+5.7	138.8	71%	49–63	✓
Vermont @ Bryant	-1.3	148.3	37%	70–66	✓
Colgate @ Navy	+0.0	140.7	49%	64–60	✗
Rice @ Charlotte	+5.6	134.5	76%	54–70	✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls	+10.3	152.9	86%	64–68	✓
Auburn @ Kentucky	+3.1	141.7	75%	54–86	✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern	+4.3	131.7	64%	59–85	✓
VMI @ Western Carolina	+7.7	146.8	85%	66–85	✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State	-3.7	137.8	33%	62–63	✗
Wagner @ Saint Francis	-1.9	131.2	38%	68–58	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield	-6.1	126.9	23%	70–66	✓
Howard @ North Carolina Central	+5.8	142.3	75%	60–68	✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M	-7.2	125.2	18%	69–55	✓
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State	-6.9	148.1	24%	88–76	✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana	+7.4	146.9	79%	75–78	✓
UNC Asheville @ Longwood	+3.6	135.3	67%	76–66	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville	+3.3	155.5	72%	78–93	✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State	+1.1	154.5	60%	93–81	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	-1.0	146.6	43%	75–66	✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood	+1.9	148.5	60%	96–97	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State	+3.8	136.9	67%	75–71	✗
American University @ Loyola Maryland	+0.5	125.5	59%	77–83	✓
Washington State @ California	-11.6	128.8	15%	63–57	✓
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell	+9.4	136.8	84%	55–92	✓
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word	-1.4	141.4	44%	75–79	✗
Kent State @ Bowling Green	-11.2	147.7	16%	79–69	✓
Omaha @ Denver	+4.8	147.4	71%	61–72	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	-10.6	138.3	16%	78–61	✓
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh	+6.8	148.6	79%	82–99	✓
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+4.3	146.7	77%	75–83	✓
Southern Utah @ Sam Houston	+6.1	138.7	72%	57–64	✓
Virginia @ North Carolina	+2.5	135.8	69%	63–71	✓
South Carolina @ Tennessee	+18.8	132.1	90%	45–85	✓
Florida @ Vanderbilt	+2.5	147.7	69%	72–88	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis	+10.3	142.6	85%	62–81	✓
La Salle @ George Washington	+2.0	155.0	55%	85–92	✓
George Mason @ Dayton	+9.9	129.0	78%	74–69	✗
UC Davis @ Cal Poly	-6.7	130.2	22%	58–52	✓
Portland State @ Montana State	+10.1	144.6	86%	78–91	✓
Texas Southern @ Jackson State	+1.3	142.9	59%	69–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.