Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CMU +130 NIU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +4 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -1.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -0.8 (-3.2) | 139.0 (+25.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -1.4 (-2.6) | 138.5 (+25.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -1.9 (-2.1) | 137.7 (+26.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -1.4 (-2.6) | 138.1 (+25.9) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CMU 88 – 46 NIU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NIU 74 – 73 CMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | NIU 83 – 81 CMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CMU 71 – 66 NIU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | CMU 69 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#322) | -4.4 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#306) | -0.88 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#314) | -0.88 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#316) | 0.467 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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