Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SJU +250 CONN -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +9 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -8.8 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -7.0 (-2.0) | 150.7 (+30.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -6.9 (-2.1) | 149.4 (+31.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.9 (-3.1) | 151.0 (+30.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.2 (-2.8) | 150.7 (+30.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#92) | 18.0 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#83) | 2.42 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#78) | 3.40 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#147) | 0.587 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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