Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB +275 CSUF -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -6.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -5.8 (+1.8) | 131.3 (+4.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -6.1 (+2.1) | 126.9 (+9.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -6.1 (+2.1) | 129.4 (+6.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -5.5 (+1.5) | 131.8 (+4.2) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 80 CSUB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CSUB 91 – 54 CSUF |
| Jan 24, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 68 CSUF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSUB 73 – 71 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.3 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#290) | 2.7 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#288) | 0.28 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#281) | 0.31 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#310) | 0.520 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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