Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | ULM -175 ARST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +3 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | ULM -4.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -2.9 (-5.9) | 132.6 (-7.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -1.6 (-4.6) | 130.2 (-5.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -3.1 (-6.1) | 132.1 (-7.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -2.9 (-5.9) | 133.4 (-8.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#289) | -7.7 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#267) | -1.55 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#257) | -1.89 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#269) | 0.403 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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