Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK +100 LAF +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | BUCK -1.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -0.3 (+10.3) | 131.1 (+8.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -0.4 (+10.4) | 131.3 (+8.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -0.7 (+9.3) | 130.2 (+9.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -0.1 (+9.9) | 131.9 (+8.1) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | LAF 81 – 79 BUCK |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BUCK 76 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BUCK 75 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BUCK 65 – 62 LAF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | BUCK 60 – 50 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#296) | -4.9 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#322) | -1.50 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#319) | -1.66 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#332) | 0.452 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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