Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -500 PRST +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +13 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -10.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -10.0 (+3.0) | 144.5 (+24.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.1 (+2.9) | 144.6 (+24.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -9.8 (+3.2) | 144.6 (+24.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -10.1 (+2.9) | 145.1 (+23.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 78.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#122) | -3.9 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#117) | -0.72 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#115) | -0.94 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#86) | 0.466 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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