Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | VILL +110 CREI -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -4.1 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -1.9 (+13.9) | 137.9 (+8.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -1.2 (+13.2) | 136.0 (+10.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -1.6 (+13.6) | 136.5 (+9.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -1.4 (+13.4) | 138.5 (+7.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#79) | 15.1 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#92) | 1.99 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#85) | 2.79 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#128) | 0.583 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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