Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | CP +260 UCD -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +6 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -5.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -5.2 (-0.8) | 134.7 (-24.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -6.7 (+0.7) | 130.2 (-20.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -6.0 (-0.0) | 134.7 (-24.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -5.3 (-0.7) | 135.7 (-25.7) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UCD 67 – 58 CP |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CP 84 – 78 UCD |
| Mar 13, 2025 | CP 86 – 76 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCD 65 – 54 CP |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCD 77 – 66 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-25 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 1-18 | 11-8 |
| Home | 6-11 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#304) | 1.3 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#345) | -0.06 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#332) | 0.19 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#354) | 0.507 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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