Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -250 UNCA +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +10 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -4.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -3.0 (-13.0) | 135.5 (+6.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -3.6 (-13.6) | 135.3 (+6.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -2.4 (-12.4) | 137.7 (+4.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.4 (-12.4) | 139.7 (+2.3) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-0 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#140) | 0.5 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#187) | 0.69 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#182) | 0.67 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#173) | 0.550 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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