Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -225 HPU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -6.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.1 (+1.9) | 153.7 (+8.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -5.6 (+0.4) | 153.1 (+8.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.4 (+1.6) | 154.9 (+7.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.2 (+1.8) | 157.2 (+4.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#243) | -7.6 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#245) | -0.94 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#248) | -1.36 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#236) | 0.457 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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