Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | AMCC -175 NWST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -4.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -3.7 (+4.3) | 149.2 (+8.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -4.3 (+3.7) | 146.7 (+11.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -3.6 (+4.4) | 148.0 (+10.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -3.2 (+4.8) | 148.6 (+9.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | AMCC 71 – 59 NWST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NWST 79 – 78 AMCC |
| Mar 10, 2025 | NWST 66 – 63 AMCC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMCC 73 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 20, 2024 | AMCC 72 – 61 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#197) | -2.1 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#218) | 0.35 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#212) | -0.12 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#185) | 0.529 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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