Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -1000 FSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -17.6 (-18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -16.2 (-17.2) | 158.9 (+10.1) | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -14.1 (-15.1) | 158.4 (+10.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -15.7 (-16.7) | 158.6 (+10.4) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -15.9 (-16.9) | 159.3 (+9.7) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-11 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#36) | -2.9 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#11) | -0.56 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#11) | -0.47 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#10) | 0.474 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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