Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -200 NAU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -4.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -2.8 (-5.8) | 154.8 (+12.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -4.1 (-7.1) | 151.3 (+15.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -3.2 (-6.2) | 153.3 (+13.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -3.0 (-6.0) | 153.9 (+13.1) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#223) | -3.8 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#243) | -1.45 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#234) | -1.42 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#260) | 0.428 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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