Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +115 GWEB -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -1.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -0.6 (+6.6) | 134.5 (+9.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -2.7 (+8.7) | 132.0 (+12.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -0.4 (+5.6) | 134.2 (+9.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -0.2 (+6.2) | 134.6 (+9.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#275) | -0.9 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#233) | -0.57 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#240) | -0.67 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#232) | 0.482 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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