Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UND +125 STMN -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -2.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -1.9 (+9.9) | 148.9 (+7.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -1.5 (+9.5) | 147.2 (+8.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -1.6 (+9.6) | 147.6 (+8.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -1.6 (+9.6) | 149.4 (+6.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UND 67 – 66 STMN |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UND 81 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 16, 2026 | STMN 91 – 80 UND |
| Mar 9, 2025 | STMN 85 – 69 UND |
| Feb 28, 2025 | STMN 86 – 71 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#288) | -1.0 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#282) | -0.01 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#272) | -0.33 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#304) | 0.502 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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