Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -138 PV +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -3.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -3.7 (-7.7) | 139.1 (+6.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -3.8 (-7.8) | 136.9 (+9.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -3.7 (-7.7) | 138.8 (+7.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -3.5 (-7.5) | 139.3 (+6.7) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-2 | 9-3 |
| Away | 10-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#269) | -5.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#163) | -1.53 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#176) | -1.64 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#149) | 0.425 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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