Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT -250 HAMP +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -7.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -4.9 (-3.9) | 149.9 (-4.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -5.2 (-4.2) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -5.7 (-4.7) | 147.3 (-2.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -5.5 (-4.5) | 148.1 (-3.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NCAT 71 – 70 HAMP |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HAMP 82 – 61 NCAT |
| Jan 21, 2025 | HAMP 74 – 73 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HAMP 82 – 71 NCAT |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NCAT 59 – 58 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#309) | -12.2 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#279) | -1.77 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#287) | -2.33 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#259) | 0.413 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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