Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +100 WAG +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +10 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -1.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -0.1 (-9.9) | 133.3 (-7.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -1.9 (-8.1) | 131.2 (-5.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.4 (-10.4) | 134.1 (-8.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -0.4 (-10.4) | 135.9 (-9.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 61.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#334) | -8.6 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#331) | -1.39 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#340) | -1.85 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#305) | 0.452 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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