Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -1200 GAST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -15.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -13.4 (+7.6) | 144.3 (+14.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -10.4 (+10.6) | 143.5 (+15.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -12.9 (+8.1) | 145.5 (+13.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -13.0 (+8.0) | 145.7 (+13.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JMU 80 – 65 GAST |
| Feb 13, 2026 | JMU 81 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | JMU 86 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | JMU 84 – 78 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-9 |
| Away | 8-6 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#84) | -5.9 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#114) | -1.35 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#99) | -1.52 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#107) | 0.425 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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