Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY +120 COLG -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -0.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.5 (-4.5) | 143.5 (-19.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -0.0 (-4.0) | 140.7 (-16.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -0.6 (-4.6) | 144.2 (-20.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -0.6 (-4.6) | 145.1 (-21.1) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 69 COLG |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 80 COLG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | COLG 79 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 16, 2025 | COLG 73 – 66 NAVY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | COLG 88 – 64 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 9-7 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#169) | 3.9 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#201) | 0.47 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#202) | 0.81 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#159) | 0.544 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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