Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -163 MRST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +23 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -4.6 (-27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -2.0 (-25.0) | 133.8 (+5.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -1.6 (-24.6) | 130.8 (+8.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -2.1 (-25.1) | 133.3 (+5.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -2.3 (-25.3) | 133.2 (+5.8) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MRST 84 – 70 MAN |
| Dec 7, 2025 | MRST 80 – 68 MAN |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MRST 82 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MRST 57 – 50 MAN |
| Dec 3, 2023 | MRST 70 – 56 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#294) | -8.2 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#290) | -1.63 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#303) | -2.02 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#277) | 0.423 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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