Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -345 MAN +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -17.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -10.1 (+1.9) | 135.6 (+12.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -11.1 (+0.9) | 132.2 (+15.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -12.2 (-0.2) | 130.4 (+17.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -11.7 (+0.3) | 135.5 (+12.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MRST 84 – 70 MAN |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MRST 82 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MRST 57 – 50 MAN |
| Dec 3, 2023 | MRST 70 – 56 MAN |
| Mar 8, 2023 | MRST 61 – 50 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#149) | -11.4 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#266) | -1.07 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#253) | -1.34 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#271) | 0.444 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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