Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MAN -167 MRST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +11 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -0.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -0.3 (-10.7) | 135.4 (-24.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -0.5 (-10.5) | 134.2 (-23.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -0.1 (-10.9) | 136.0 (-25.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -0.3 (-10.7) | 137.1 (-26.1) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MRST 84 – 70 MAN |
| Dec 7, 2025 | MRST 80 – 68 MAN |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MRST 82 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MRST 57 – 50 MAN |
| Dec 3, 2023 | MRST 70 – 56 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#299) | -7.5 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#293) | -1.55 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#318) | -1.89 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#269) | 0.429 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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