Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -275 MAN +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +14 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -15.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -9.4 (+4.6) | 136.4 (-10.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -8.0 (+6.0) | 132.8 (-6.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -8.5 (+5.5) | 133.6 (-7.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -9.5 (+4.5) | 134.6 (-8.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MRST 84 – 70 MAN |
| Dec 7, 2025 | MRST 80 – 68 MAN |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MRST 82 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MRST 57 – 50 MAN |
| Mar 8, 2023 | MRST 61 – 50 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#126) | -6.8 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#127) | 1.30 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#171) | 0.73 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#194) | 0.561 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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