Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -450 AF +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +1 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -9.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -8.4 (-7.4) | 140.4 (-33.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -9.3 (-8.3) | 138.3 (-31.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -8.5 (-7.5) | 142.1 (-35.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -8.4 (-7.4) | 143.5 (-36.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#83) | 0.9 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#91) | -0.02 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#77) | 0.05 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#95) | 0.466 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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