Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -115 UTU -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -0.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -0.5 (+2.5) | 140.8 (-0.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -0.2 (+1.8) | 136.9 (+3.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -0.3 (+1.7) | 141.8 (-1.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -0.1 (+2.1) | 142.8 (-2.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTA 63 – 50 UTU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTU 87 – 84 UTA |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UTA 56 – 52 UTU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTA 73 – 71 UTU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UTU 74 – 62 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#241) | -0.2 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#239) | -0.29 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#236) | -0.28 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#251) | 0.481 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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