Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MER -350 CIT +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +22 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MER -8.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -6.3 (+15.7) | 138.3 (-16.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -6.4 (+15.6) | 136.8 (-14.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -6.6 (+15.4) | 136.2 (-14.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -5.9 (+16.1) | 137.7 (-15.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#238) | -9.0 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#278) | -1.67 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#258) | -1.88 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#280) | 0.418 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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