Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +115 NEV -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +4 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -6.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -6.3 (+2.3) | 129.9 (-13.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -4.0 (-0.0) | 127.1 (-11.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -5.8 (+1.8) | 129.6 (-13.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -5.7 (+1.7) | 130.6 (-14.6) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#156) | 10.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#179) | 2.30 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#164) | 2.57 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#183) | 0.620 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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