Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | DEN -275 OMA +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -5.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -4.4 (+6.6) | 150.3 (-17.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -4.8 (+6.2) | 147.4 (-14.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.4 (+6.6) | 149.4 (-16.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -4.3 (+6.7) | 149.5 (-16.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | OMA 83 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | OMA 84 – 82 DEN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | OMA 78 – 69 DEN |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OMA 80 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | DEN 66 – 63 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#292) | -8.9 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#264) | -1.34 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#277) | -1.70 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#309) | 0.451 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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