Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -110 AMER +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -0.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (+32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -0.8 (+5.2) | 131.2 (+28.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -0.5 (+5.5) | 125.5 (+34.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -0.4 (+5.6) | 133.2 (+26.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -0.0 (+6.0) | 134.4 (+25.6) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Dec 31, 2025 | AMER 84 – 69 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AMER 72 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMER 73 – 54 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2024 | L-MD 44 – 43 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#327) | -5.3 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#317) | -0.86 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#317) | -1.30 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#326) | 0.452 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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