Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -300 SFBK +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -8.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -5.7 (+11.3) | 144.7 (+10.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -6.1 (+10.9) | 141.3 (+13.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -5.2 (+11.8) | 142.2 (+12.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -5.6 (+11.4) | 144.8 (+10.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2023 | FDU 83 – 75 SFBK |
| Jan 5, 2023 | FDU 76 – 57 SFBK |
| Feb 4, 2022 | SFBK 81 – 64 FDU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | SFBK 80 – 78 FDU |
| Feb 18, 2021 | SFBK 90 – 87 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#317) | -13.4 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#296) | -1.87 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#297) | -2.56 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#293) | 0.435 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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