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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–20 on winners spread MAE 8.2 55 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ Wichita State	-2.5	151.9	35%	83–78	✓
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic	+17.4	149.6	90%	66–106	✓
UTEP @ Florida International	+0.1	136.8	48%	87–82	✗
North Texas @ Charlotte	-2.2	117.0	34%	49–55	✗
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb	+0.1	128.8	46%	75–63	✗
Stonehill @ Wagner	+3.6	124.1	64%	44–54	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Sacred Heart	+5.4	135.4	71%	70–63	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis	+1.5	155.4	50%	72–82	✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack	+3.8	130.1	73%	54–70	✓
Wright State @ Oakland	-2.5	160.9	51%	68–75	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy	+2.6	140.1	58%	67–64	✗
Elon @ William & Mary	+1.5	135.4	55%	60–73	✓
Towson @ Charleston	+8.8	149.9	84%	75–83	✓
Delaware @ North Carolina A&T	-1.6	143.8	42%	73–71	✓
Monmouth @ Hampton	+1.9	141.8	61%	81–86	✓
Stony Brook @ UNC Wilmington	+10.4	131.4	85%	69–76	✓
Northeastern @ Drexel	+7.8	132.6	77%	48–75	✓
Rice @ UAB	+13.9	158.0	87%	57–85	✓
Utah Tech @ UT Rio Grande Valley	-0.7	151.2	51%	88–81	✓
California Baptist @ Sam Houston	+9.0	126.9	81%	45–56	✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis	-8.2	135.6	21%	75–81	✗
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans	-5.3	153.3	32%	82–88	✗
SE Louisiana @ Lamar	-3.9	145.8	30%	83–60	✓
McNeese @ Houston Christian	+1.2	151.2	58%	80–85	✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State	-3.2	138.9	45%	58–77	✗
St. Thomas @ North Dakota State	+2.1	148.0	64%	64–73	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota	-13.6	153.3	15%	82–70	✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State	+9.5	133.8	83%	50–73	✓
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville	+7.8	155.3	79%	79–74	✗
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+8.6	144.7	81%	84–80	✗
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word	-5.2	143.5	25%	71–66	✓
Michigan @ Rutgers	+5.8	133.0	69%	58–45	✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington	-4.0	143.2	33%	86–76	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana	+5.5	151.3	72%	82–79	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee	+2.2	150.4	72%	94–96	✓
Northwestern @ Illinois	+5.6	136.2	74%	62–66	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky	+1.0	142.4	58%	66–76	✓
USC @ Colorado	+2.9	143.7	67%	84–65	✗
Washington @ California	-8.0	131.3	22%	65–56	✓
Tennessee State @ UT Martin	+3.6	156.2	61%	88–82	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood	-1.8	143.4	43%	102–105	✗
Sacramento State @ Montana State	+10.3	129.5	87%	56–60	✓
Idaho @ Idaho State	+4.4	140.0	70%	55–65	✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State	-1.6	136.0	42%	89–82	✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay	-14.1	135.4	13%	76–65	✓
Pacific @ Saint Mary's	+20.6	139.6	90%	52–83	✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara	+12.3	163.6	87%	82–91	✓
Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara	+3.3	146.8	61%	73–78	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge	-0.2	126.1	46%	68–75	✗
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine	+12.2	140.2	86%	99–91	✗
UCLA @ Utah	-5.2	132.9	25%	78–71	✓
San Diego @ Gonzaga	+20.2	165.9	90%	72–97	✓
Washington State @ Stanford	+0.5	134.0	53%	67–63	✗
Portland @ San Francisco	+8.4	156.5	82%	89–92	✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i	+2.2	132.9	59%	54–52	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.