Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -163 IDHO +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -4.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -3.5 (+6.5) | 142.6 (-22.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -4.4 (+5.6) | 140.0 (-20.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -3.7 (+6.3) | 141.2 (-21.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -3.3 (+6.7) | 142.0 (-22.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IDHO 99 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | IDST 76 – 68 IDHO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | IDST 87 – 71 IDHO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | IDHO 55 – 53 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#254) | -6.2 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#304) | -1.57 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#275) | -1.86 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#328) | 0.390 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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