Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -175 UCR +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +2 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -4.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -3.9 (-5.9) | 135.1 (-29.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -2.2 (-4.2) | 132.9 (-26.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -3.5 (-5.5) | 135.5 (-29.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -3.4 (-5.4) | 135.7 (-29.7) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HAW 93 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | HAW 88 – 45 UCR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCR 82 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 10, 2025 | HAW 83 – 76 UCR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | HAW 76 – 73 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#132) | 1.5 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#129) | 0.62 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#108) | 0.44 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#151) | 0.532 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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