Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -188 TNST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +6 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -5.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -3.5 (-9.5) | 158.0 (+12.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -3.6 (-9.6) | 156.2 (+13.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -3.9 (-9.9) | 154.4 (+15.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -3.7 (-9.7) | 155.9 (+14.1) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#250) | -6.1 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#243) | -1.09 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#249) | -1.53 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#211) | 0.444 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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