Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | HCU -138 MCN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -0.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -0.2 (+4.8) | 152.8 (+12.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -1.2 (+3.8) | 151.2 (+13.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -1.2 (+3.8) | 153.5 (+11.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -1.1 (+3.9) | 155.1 (+9.9) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | MCN 73 – 69 HCU |
| Dec 16, 2025 | MCN 78 – 68 HCU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MCN 75 – 59 HCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MCN 87 – 69 HCU |
| Feb 13, 2024 | MCN 105 – 54 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#357) | -11.3 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#353) | -2.03 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.79 (#353) | -2.74 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#348) | 0.442 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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