Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -6500 HCU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -19.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -17.3 (-13.3) | 134.5 (+7.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -18.0 (-14.0) | 133.5 (+8.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -16.0 (-12.0) | 136.7 (+5.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -17.0 (-13.0) | 135.5 (+6.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2025 | MCN 78 – 68 HCU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MCN 75 – 59 HCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MCN 87 – 69 HCU |
| Feb 13, 2024 | MCN 105 – 54 HCU |
| Feb 24, 2023 | HCU 85 – 80 MCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 19-3 | 8-14 |
| Home | 14-0 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#67) | -8.0 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#69) | -1.76 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#74) | -2.07 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#48) | 0.410 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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