Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +130 FDU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -1.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -0.5 (+10.5) | 157.4 (-3.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -1.5 (+8.5) | 155.4 (-1.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.1 (+9.9) | 158.0 (-4.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -0.1 (+9.9) | 158.6 (-4.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#335) | -8.5 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#336) | -1.31 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#343) | -1.62 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#310) | 0.445 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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