Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -10000 USD +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +25 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -21.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -20.2 (+4.8) | 165.9 (+3.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -18.7 (+6.3) | 169.9 (-0.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -19.9 (+5.1) | 170.5 (-1.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -19.4 (+5.6) | 164.8 (+4.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GONZ 99 – 93 USD |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GONZ 93 – 80 USD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | GONZ 105 – 63 USD |
| Jan 7, 2024 | GONZ 101 – 74 USD |
| Feb 4, 2022 | GONZ 92 – 62 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 4-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-9 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#10) | -1.9 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#5) | -0.74 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#5) | -0.56 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#3) | 0.451 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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