Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | USD +1200 GONZ -5000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +42 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -13.2 (-28.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -13.1 (-28.9) | 151.3 (+16.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -11.9 (-30.1) | 150.6 (+17.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -12.9 (-29.1) | 151.3 (+16.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -13.2 (-28.8) | 152.0 (+16.0) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GONZ 99 – 93 USD |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GONZ 93 – 80 USD |
| Jan 7, 2024 | GONZ 101 – 74 USD |
| Feb 24, 2023 | GONZ 97 – 72 USD |
| Feb 4, 2022 | GONZ 92 – 62 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#245) | 12.9 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#211) | 1.58 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#214) | 2.31 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#218) | 0.563 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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