Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -2500 USD +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +27 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -18.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -16.5 (+10.5) | 149.6 (+25.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -19.2 (+7.8) | 149.5 (+25.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -15.2 (+11.8) | 147.9 (+27.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -15.3 (+11.7) | 147.5 (+27.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GONZ 99 – 93 USD |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GONZ 93 – 80 USD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | GONZ 105 – 63 USD |
| Feb 24, 2023 | GONZ 97 – 72 USD |
| Feb 4, 2022 | GONZ 92 – 62 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#44) | -2.5 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#55) | 0.03 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#47) | -0.06 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#86) | 0.500 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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