Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -23.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | USD +2000 GONZ -10000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +30 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -21.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -17.4 (-12.6) | 150.2 (+3.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -16.2 (-13.8) | 149.6 (+4.4) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -14.6 (-15.4) | 151.2 (+2.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -17.2 (-12.8) | 153.0 (+1.0) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GONZ 99 – 93 USD |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GONZ 93 – 80 USD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | GONZ 105 – 63 USD |
| Jan 7, 2024 | GONZ 101 – 74 USD |
| Feb 24, 2023 | GONZ 97 – 72 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 28-4 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 13-1 |
| Home | 8-6 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-1 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 87.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#173) | 23.9 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#142) | 3.41 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#131) | 4.75 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#154) | 0.621 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 53.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 60.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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