Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | USD +2000 GONZ -6500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +6 | 192 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -27.9 (+21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+37.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -15.7 (+9.7) | 152.0 (+40.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -14.2 (+8.2) | 154.4 (+37.6) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -13.5 (+7.5) | 148.4 (+43.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -16.8 (+10.8) | 149.6 (+42.4) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2025 | GONZ 93 – 80 USD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | GONZ 105 – 63 USD |
| Jan 7, 2024 | GONZ 101 – 74 USD |
| Feb 24, 2023 | GONZ 97 – 72 USD |
| Feb 4, 2022 | GONZ 92 – 62 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-0 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#231) | 27.7 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#197) | 4.53 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#199) | 6.56 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#239) | 0.641 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 43.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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