Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -450 SAC +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +4 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -10.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -9.4 (-5.4) | 130.2 (-14.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.3 (-6.3) | 129.5 (-13.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -8.5 (-4.5) | 131.0 (-15.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -9.3 (-5.3) | 131.9 (-15.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#117) | -3.5 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#116) | -0.67 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#115) | -0.82 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#89) | 0.473 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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